Tuesday, December 4, 2007

Poker Mathematics - The Pot Sized Bet Or Overbet

One of the things I have noticed about many people's games are that they rarely bet the pot or over bet the pot. Most of their bets are between 50%-75% of the pot.

I feel this is a leak in their games so I am looking to start a discussion about the times to use this larger bet.

Couple of thoughts on betting the pot:

The smaller the pot is, the more likely and comfortable you should be to bet the pot or more. One reason for this is if the pot is small, when betting a percentage of that you are giving your opponents terrific implied odds if you had a decent size stack. Also, if the pot is small, and hence your bet is small, players are going to be more likely to call with some wacky draws. When calling a pot sized bet with 30BB in the pot is one thing, but calling a pot sized bet with 3BB in pot is nothing. 3 chips? Oh thats a bargain, I call! Take down small pots early.

Personally I am not a huge fan of the consistent pot size continuation bet. I think people should bet enough to get the job done, I have found that most of the time it doesn't matter what you bet, what that player decided to do they are going to do it. If they were going to fold/call/raise, your bet in relation to the pot doesn't particularly matter all that much for a significant portion of hands. Since that is the case, I have found that 2/3 the pot is generally a happy medium. Just figure out how to exploit this and you will be ok.

The overbet also depends a lot on your image. For example a LAG player might want to overbet when they have a hand since they figure to get played with/back at more often then the regular player. Players with a tight image may want to overbet less since they get less action and their tight image will override a smaller sized bet.

In general, just bet the pot when you are against an opponent who calls too much.

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