Poker Mathematics - Interesting Hypothetical Situation (SS w/ AKo)

2/5 cash game. You're playing a shortstack because you're new to the game and don't want to buy in full yet. So you're playing short and taking a solid, TAG route. You have $150 and pick up AKo in the BB.

An EP player opens for $15 and it's folded around to you.

Let's say you know this EP player is a TAG too. His EP raising range is:

AA-99
AK-AQ

What is your best play?

Analysis: At first glance this seems like a no-brainer. You're short stacked, you're going to play AK as it's a premium hand. There's a problem here though, what's the best route?

Any raise commits you to the pot. If you raise to $60 and villain calls, there will be $120 in the pot and you'll have $90 left. If you raise and villain moves in there will be $210 in the pot and it will be $90 for you to call - Getting about 7:3 you'd have to call.

What about calling? If you call you'll miss the flop 2/3 of the time. Then what? OOP you are at a tremendous disadvantage. If you connect you're in a tough spot because you will be hard pressed getting any worse hand your opponent might have to get all in (unless you flop an A to his AQ). But if you do hit, villain will be daft to try to bluff someone who's shortstacked.

So - pushing in is the best option right?

This is the catch all play. It ends your positional disadvantage, it doesn't leave you pot committed but still forced to see a flop like a raise does, and puts maximum pressure on your opponent.

But is it +EV?

If you move in villain will have to call $135 into a $165 pot. With such short odds, he obviously can't do this without a premium hand. So let's figure it this way:

Villain will call with:

AA-KK
QQ - 50%
JJ - 20%
AK - 66%
AQs - 25%
TT-99 will fold

This makes the break-down like this:

There's 50 hands that could've raised from EP.
Of those, 21 hands will call the all in and 29 hands will fold.

That makes it look like this:

29 / 50 = 58% of the time he folds and you win $15 for a profit of +$8.70

The rest of the hands I had to run through Pokerstove, and it turns out you are 37.3% facing his calling range:

37.3% * $165 = +$61.55
62.7% * -$150 = -$94.05

Total outcome is -$32.5

Factor in how much you make when he folds, and the total EV here is: -$23.80

Strange as it sounds, MOVING IN WITH AKo WHEN A SOLID PLAYER OPENS IN EP, EVEN WHEN SHORTSTACKED, IS A -EV PLAY!

So could folding possibly be best? With pot odds of 3:2 and being about 2:1 to flop a pair or better, I'm not sure if you could make up the rest through implied odds. Your only hope would be to catch an A or K, check, and hope your opponent continues to bet. But you'll likely only win the one bet unless he caught something too, and against someone who's smart, they're not likely going to bet into a shortstack on an A or K high board without something that can beat that.

Tell me what would you do?