2/5 cash game. You're playing a shortstack because you're new to the game and don't want to buy in full yet. So you're playing short and taking a solid, TAG route. You have $150 and pick up AKo in the BB.
An EP player opens for $15 and it's folded around to you.
Let's say you know this EP player is a TAG too. His EP raising range is:
AA-99
AK-AQ
What is your best play?
Analysis: At first glance this seems like a no-brainer. You're short stacked, you're going to play AK as it's a premium hand. There's a problem here though, what's the best route?
Any raise commits you to the pot. If you raise to $60 and villain calls, there will be $120 in the pot and you'll have $90 left. If you raise and villain moves in there will be $210 in the pot and it will be $90 for you to call - Getting about 7:3 you'd have to call.
What about calling? If you call you'll miss the flop 2/3 of the time. Then what? OOP you are at a tremendous disadvantage. If you connect you're in a tough spot because you will be hard pressed getting any worse hand your opponent might have to get all in (unless you flop an A to his AQ). But if you do hit, villain will be daft to try to bluff someone who's shortstacked.
So - pushing in is the best option right?
This is the catch all play. It ends your positional disadvantage, it doesn't leave you pot committed but still forced to see a flop like a raise does, and puts maximum pressure on your opponent.
But is it +EV?
If you move in villain will have to call $135 into a $165 pot. With such short odds, he obviously can't do this without a premium hand. So let's figure it this way:
Villain will call with:
AA-KK
QQ - 50%
JJ - 20%
AK - 66%
AQs - 25%
TT-99 will fold
This makes the break-down like this:
There's 50 hands that could've raised from EP.
Of those, 21 hands will call the all in and 29 hands will fold.
That makes it look like this:
29 / 50 = 58% of the time he folds and you win $15 for a profit of +$8.70
The rest of the hands I had to run through Pokerstove, and it turns out you are 37.3% facing his calling range:
37.3% * $165 = +$61.55
62.7% * -$150 = -$94.05
Total outcome is -$32.5
Factor in how much you make when he folds, and the total EV here is: -$23.80
Strange as it sounds, MOVING IN WITH AKo WHEN A SOLID PLAYER OPENS IN EP, EVEN WHEN SHORTSTACKED, IS A -EV PLAY!
So could folding possibly be best? With pot odds of 3:2 and being about 2:1 to flop a pair or better, I'm not sure if you could make up the rest through implied odds. Your only hope would be to catch an A or K, check, and hope your opponent continues to bet. But you'll likely only win the one bet unless he caught something too, and against someone who's smart, they're not likely going to bet into a shortstack on an A or K high board without something that can beat that.
Tell me what would you do?
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
Poker Mathematics - What To Do When You Flop A Set
You get a pair of four in pre-flop. then the flop comes 9s, Ah, 4c
How would you play this?
Generally I like to come right out firing when I am out of position to the raiser, especially on a flop like this, it's a set miners wet dream. You bet and bet BIG, at least the full pot. You really hope your opponent has AK, AQ, AJ, etc here. Betting into him is often best because if he's got big slick, what's he going to do? He's going to raise you, and by that time it is too late, all the money goes in. You are giving him the best opportunity to hang himself. Check raising is not the best play because it allows your opponent to get off cheap if he bets the flop and you raise him. Ex pot is $10 on flop and you both have $100 behind, you check , he bets $10, you raise to say $40, he folds. All you win is $20. If you lead into him for $10, he's going to raise you to $40, and you push. Even if he folds to your push, you win an additional $30 you would not have if you played it the other way.
On a ragged flop I might check it to the raiser since it is very likely he is holding two high cards that missed. In this case you may only get a continuation bet, and a big flop lead will probably scare him away. I will also do this against loose-aggressive types who raise a lot preflop and usually fire off a pot sized CB. I don't lead because these types of frequent raisers usually have nothing on the flop and are counting on their sheer aggression to take down pots. I like a check raise here because often all you are getting is their continuation bet, and since they are aggressive, if they do happen to have a good second best hand, you are going to get their money anyway.
And sometimes rather than checkraising right off, I will check call and either lead out on the turn, or checkraise the turn.
What it all comes down to is this: When you flop a set your goal is to get all the money in by the river. How you do that depends on the board, your opponent, and your own image.
As far as playing 44 from MP preflop. Look, open limping in NL games is NOT a sin, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise, that is just silly. At this point in the torunament it plays like a cash game, and essentially the blinds are not worth stealing. If you still have 4 or 5 players yet to act, your chances of taking it down with a 4-6 BB raise are pretty low. If you get called (especially in more than one spot) you are going to really need a set to win and might end up costing you more money.
The idea of raising for info here is meaningless. If you get reraised, then you find out you are behind, big deal. You wasted an implied odds hand. If I were to open raise, I would make it two or three times the big blind to go. Sure no one is going to fold that planned on calling anyway, but who cares? 44 is only marginally better than any likely non-pair hand that is calling, and a dog to all other pairs. But the only thing that matters is that you are playing your hand for set value. Making a small raise here is a value bet for the times you do hit your set. You are building a bit of a pot, plus multi-way you are increasing the chances of someone making a second best hand and paying you off.
I am beginning to think that when you make a "proper" sized raise (4XBB +1BB/limper) with an implied odds hand, you are actually cutting down your implied odds in situations where your raise is not very likely to win the blinds uncontested.
You will often not flop much, and even when you do flop a monster, it's not likely your lone opponent caught much.
How would you play this?
Generally I like to come right out firing when I am out of position to the raiser, especially on a flop like this, it's a set miners wet dream. You bet and bet BIG, at least the full pot. You really hope your opponent has AK, AQ, AJ, etc here. Betting into him is often best because if he's got big slick, what's he going to do? He's going to raise you, and by that time it is too late, all the money goes in. You are giving him the best opportunity to hang himself. Check raising is not the best play because it allows your opponent to get off cheap if he bets the flop and you raise him. Ex pot is $10 on flop and you both have $100 behind, you check , he bets $10, you raise to say $40, he folds. All you win is $20. If you lead into him for $10, he's going to raise you to $40, and you push. Even if he folds to your push, you win an additional $30 you would not have if you played it the other way.
On a ragged flop I might check it to the raiser since it is very likely he is holding two high cards that missed. In this case you may only get a continuation bet, and a big flop lead will probably scare him away. I will also do this against loose-aggressive types who raise a lot preflop and usually fire off a pot sized CB. I don't lead because these types of frequent raisers usually have nothing on the flop and are counting on their sheer aggression to take down pots. I like a check raise here because often all you are getting is their continuation bet, and since they are aggressive, if they do happen to have a good second best hand, you are going to get their money anyway.
And sometimes rather than checkraising right off, I will check call and either lead out on the turn, or checkraise the turn.
What it all comes down to is this: When you flop a set your goal is to get all the money in by the river. How you do that depends on the board, your opponent, and your own image.
As far as playing 44 from MP preflop. Look, open limping in NL games is NOT a sin, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise, that is just silly. At this point in the torunament it plays like a cash game, and essentially the blinds are not worth stealing. If you still have 4 or 5 players yet to act, your chances of taking it down with a 4-6 BB raise are pretty low. If you get called (especially in more than one spot) you are going to really need a set to win and might end up costing you more money.
The idea of raising for info here is meaningless. If you get reraised, then you find out you are behind, big deal. You wasted an implied odds hand. If I were to open raise, I would make it two or three times the big blind to go. Sure no one is going to fold that planned on calling anyway, but who cares? 44 is only marginally better than any likely non-pair hand that is calling, and a dog to all other pairs. But the only thing that matters is that you are playing your hand for set value. Making a small raise here is a value bet for the times you do hit your set. You are building a bit of a pot, plus multi-way you are increasing the chances of someone making a second best hand and paying you off.
I am beginning to think that when you make a "proper" sized raise (4XBB +1BB/limper) with an implied odds hand, you are actually cutting down your implied odds in situations where your raise is not very likely to win the blinds uncontested.
You will often not flop much, and even when you do flop a monster, it's not likely your lone opponent caught much.
Poker Mathematics - The Pot Sized Bet Or Overbet
One of the things I have noticed about many people's games are that they rarely bet the pot or over bet the pot. Most of their bets are between 50%-75% of the pot.
I feel this is a leak in their games so I am looking to start a discussion about the times to use this larger bet.
Couple of thoughts on betting the pot:
The smaller the pot is, the more likely and comfortable you should be to bet the pot or more. One reason for this is if the pot is small, when betting a percentage of that you are giving your opponents terrific implied odds if you had a decent size stack. Also, if the pot is small, and hence your bet is small, players are going to be more likely to call with some wacky draws. When calling a pot sized bet with 30BB in the pot is one thing, but calling a pot sized bet with 3BB in pot is nothing. 3 chips? Oh thats a bargain, I call! Take down small pots early.
Personally I am not a huge fan of the consistent pot size continuation bet. I think people should bet enough to get the job done, I have found that most of the time it doesn't matter what you bet, what that player decided to do they are going to do it. If they were going to fold/call/raise, your bet in relation to the pot doesn't particularly matter all that much for a significant portion of hands. Since that is the case, I have found that 2/3 the pot is generally a happy medium. Just figure out how to exploit this and you will be ok.
The overbet also depends a lot on your image. For example a LAG player might want to overbet when they have a hand since they figure to get played with/back at more often then the regular player. Players with a tight image may want to overbet less since they get less action and their tight image will override a smaller sized bet.
In general, just bet the pot when you are against an opponent who calls too much.
I feel this is a leak in their games so I am looking to start a discussion about the times to use this larger bet.
Couple of thoughts on betting the pot:
The smaller the pot is, the more likely and comfortable you should be to bet the pot or more. One reason for this is if the pot is small, when betting a percentage of that you are giving your opponents terrific implied odds if you had a decent size stack. Also, if the pot is small, and hence your bet is small, players are going to be more likely to call with some wacky draws. When calling a pot sized bet with 30BB in the pot is one thing, but calling a pot sized bet with 3BB in pot is nothing. 3 chips? Oh thats a bargain, I call! Take down small pots early.
Personally I am not a huge fan of the consistent pot size continuation bet. I think people should bet enough to get the job done, I have found that most of the time it doesn't matter what you bet, what that player decided to do they are going to do it. If they were going to fold/call/raise, your bet in relation to the pot doesn't particularly matter all that much for a significant portion of hands. Since that is the case, I have found that 2/3 the pot is generally a happy medium. Just figure out how to exploit this and you will be ok.
The overbet also depends a lot on your image. For example a LAG player might want to overbet when they have a hand since they figure to get played with/back at more often then the regular player. Players with a tight image may want to overbet less since they get less action and their tight image will override a smaller sized bet.
In general, just bet the pot when you are against an opponent who calls too much.
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